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SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Ukraine is under new pressure now, three years after resisting Russia's invasion. Russia has stepped up missile and drone attacks that have killed Ukrainians and damaged homes and energy infrastructure. The U.S. has suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. And yesterday, President Donald Trump said...
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: I find that, in terms of getting a final settlement, it may be easier dealing with Russia, which is surprising 'cause they have all the cards. And they're bombing the hell out of them right now.
SIMON: Phillips O'Brien is professor of strategic studies at St. Andrews University in Scotland. Professor, thanks for being with us.
PHILLIPS O'BRIEN: Glad to be here.
SIMON: What is the state of the conflict on the battlefield now, as you read it?
O'BRIEN: Well, actually, it had been very stable for the last few months, that Russian advances had really almost stopped completely, and the Ukrainians had taken a very heavy toll on the Russians. Then Russian losses were actually heavy and the Russians could maintain and go forward. The question we face now, of course, is with the U.S. basically siding with Putin. It's not like they've just withdrawn from Ukraine - that they've withdrawn in such a way to provide a significant military advantage to the Russians. What we don't know is how significant that advantage will be and whether that will change what's happening on the battlefield.
SIMON: What about the role of Europe? Can Europe step into that void, as they have pledged to do?
O'BRIEN: They better. I mean, they should have done more to now, in the sense that they should have planned on a Trump presidency, and a Trump presidency resulting in the U.S. switching sides to support Putin. They didn't. They didn't believe it was possible. Maybe they didn't want to believe it was possible. There is now, I think, a greater understanding of the actual reality of the U.S.' position and its support of Putin. And so the Europeans are desperately trying to play some kind of catch-up. They do have resources. They're much, much richer than the Russians, but they wasted the time they should have had getting ready for this.
SIMON: You have been a critic of the way the U.S. has handled the war, under President Trump most recently, but also under President Biden.
O'BRIEN: Yep.
SIMON: Where do you believe the United States has been falling short?
O'BRIEN: Well, basically, the United States has had two presidencies that have been part of this war. The first one, the Biden administration, didn't want Ukraine to win. And the second one, the Trump administration, wants Russia to win. So the United States, at no point, has actually wanted Ukraine to win this war. So the Biden administration funded Ukraine, simply, not to win, but not to lose. And the Trump administration is taking active steps to help the Russians win. So at no point has the United States actually wanted a democratic Ukraine to win this war.
SIMON: I come back to the fact that you have said very openly, the United States is now on Russia's side.
O'BRIEN: Yeah.
SIMON: You know, what about - I don't even want to refer them as President Trump's protestations, but his insistence that the whole idea is to get a deal.
O'BRIEN: Well, how come all the concessions are being forced on Ukraine? I mean, all the penalty - Russia has been given no extra pressure by Trump. I mean, he talks about, oh, maybe we'll put on sanctions. All the pressure is being put on Ukraine. The aid has been slash - cut loose. The intelligence has been cut. They're not even sending medical supplies from what we can hear. So if this is to try and get a deal, why is all the extreme pressure being placed on Ukraine and Russia, indeed, is getting, you know, bouquets and compliments from Trump in the clip you just played? It seems to me that it is very one-sided way of doing business.
SIMON: But if there is a deal, won't that end a lot of suffering for Ukraine?
O'BRIEN: Well, it depends what the deal is. I mean, the deal, if it's a temporary ceasefire and just allows Russia to rebuild and come back in Ukraine in a year, will just make it worse. So - and it's not - and no ceasefire...
SIMON: And you believe that would be a...
O'BRIEN: I think that's what...
SIMON: ...Russian aim.
O'BRIEN: ...Trump wants. Yeah. I think that's what Trump and Putin are working out. You freeze the conflict. You give Ukraine no real security guarantees. So you won't have any NATO troops in Ukraine to defend it, and you give Russia time to rebuild. Then all the sanctions will be ended on Russia by the U.S. And in a year or two, Russia will rebuild its military.
SIMON: Phillips O'Brien, his book about World War II is "The Strategists." Professor, thank you so much for joining us.
O'BRIEN: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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