A MART脥NEZ, HOST:
President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will talk later today - a phone call that could move Russia closer to approving a ceasefire proposal in Ukraine that the U.S. has already supported. Joining us to preview what we can expect is NPR's Russia correspondent, Charles Maynes. So, Charles, the White House has signaled it is cautiously optimistic, but based on what?
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Well, A, White House envoy Steve Witkoff was in Moscow last week, where he met with Putin behind closed doors. Afterward, Witkoff came away saying the U.S. had bridged the gap in differences between Russia and Ukraine. Now, Putin - you know, he's publicly endorsed the U.S. plan in principle but raised a host of issues over how to actually implement it, everything from how to monitor the ceasefire to what might prevent Ukraine from using the pause to rearm and regroup. Despite that, Trump, speaking on Air Force One Sunday, suggested the groundwork had already been laid for a potential breakthrough.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: A lot of it already discussed very much by both sides...
UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: You'll ask him to...
TRUMP: ...Ukraine and Russia.
MAYNES: Now, in those comments, Trump went on to say land and power plants were among assets on the table that could be divided up in a wider deal to end the war. So Trump's business approach to negotiation is very much on display.
MART脥NEZ: OK. What does the plan actually do, though, Charles?
MAYNES: Well, you know, it's a first step, essentially. It would place a 30-day ban on all attacks by both Moscow and Kyiv, the idea here being that if it works, renew it and keep talking and eventually wind the war down itself. Now, Ukraine signed on to the ceasefire plan following marathon talks with the U.S. in Saudi Arabia last week. In doing so, Kyiv appeared to overcome charges from Trump that Ukraine wasn't interested in peace. In fact, as soon as Kyiv signed on to the ceasefire deal, Trump lifted a ban on U.S. military and intelligence support to Ukraine. And given all that, the question now is, how will Putin respond?
MART脥NEZ: One of the criticisms going in is that Trump has been demanding huge concessions from Ukraine but not necessarily many from Russia. Has any of that changed?
MAYNES: Well, we'll have to see. You know, as Trump put it, he doesn't think Ukraine holds a lot of cards. The Kremlin, meanwhile, has been unwavering in its core demands that Ukraine give up territory annexed by Moscow and end its ambitions to join NATO. I put the question of what, if anything, the Kremlin was giving up to Sergei Markov. He's a former Putin spokesman. His answer - a promise not to seize more Ukrainian territory. That is the concession, says Markov.
SERGEI MARKOV: It's already such huge compromise that even I am interesting in how Vladimir Putin will tell about this to the Russian public.
MAYNES: So Markov here is saying Putin would be giving up a lot in the eyes of Russians by simply not pressing its current military advantage. I'd only add that if there are any concessions from Putin, they appear to be aimed at Trump. You know, Putin is essentially offering Trump business opportunities - everything from rare earth minerals to investments - if and when sanctions are lifted.
MART脥NEZ: So more of a form of direct U.S.-Russia horse trading. So is President Trump similarly offering anything in return?
MAYNES: Well, you could argue yes. Trump this week ended U.S. involvement in a Biden-era probe that sought to hold Putin legally responsible for the invasion of Ukraine. But Trump also, on his own, decided to gut the Voice of America and its sister organization, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Both U.S. government media outlets were a source of news coverage that could be critical, not only of Putin's Russia but of much of the autocratic former - post-Soviet space, for example, in Central Asia and Belarus.
Another way to think about that - you know, we knew Putin saw Russia's sphere of influence extending to much of the former Soviet Union politically. Well, with this decision, Trump has ceded to Putin that sphere of influence informationally as well. And propagandists in Moscow couldn't be happier.
MART脥NEZ: All right. That's NPR's Russia correspondent, Charles Maynes. Charles, thanks.
MAYNES: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR鈥檚 programming is the audio record.
